A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
